Don't Go Dark: Building Irresistible Brands in Uncertain Times

For CMOs and other brand leaders in the indulgence space, economic uncertainty creates a particular kind of tension. Will consumers who are worried about their wallets still reach for that premium snack, craft cocktail or other small luxury that brings them moments of joy?

The same concerns ripple through corporate finance. Budgets that once sailed through approvals now face scrutiny, with CFOs demanding detailed forecasts before releasing funds. Marketing—often viewed as discretionary—becomes the most convenient line item to cut.

The budget squeeze hits brands across the spectrum:

• Early-stage disruptors face intense investor pressure to extend their runway while still creating consumer pull
• Middle-market brands that were riding the perfect wave of growth now worry about competitors stealing their advantage
• Established brands must confront boards and C-suites demanding cost reductions without sacrificing hard-won emotional connections and brand value built over years

The instinct to reduce marketing spend is understandable. It's the behavioral science principle of Loss Aversion at work—we instinctively feel the pain of potential losses much more than the satisfaction of possible wins.

Yet giving in and going dark creates the precise vulnerability that brands most want to avoid.

The evidence shows that when brands sustain their visibility and consumer connections through uncertainty, they do more than preserve their position—they gain ground.

The key is to sustain investments while grounding strategies in the behavioral motivators that drive consumer choice in times like these. Because economic uncertainty doesn't diminish marketing's value. It amplifies the effect of every brand decision.

The Proven Costs of Dropping Out of Sight

The data is clear on what happens when brands put any pause on marketing. The concept of Excess Share of Voice (ESOV), established by renowned marketing researchers Les Binet and Peter Field in their landmark book The Long and the Short of It, explains why:

• When a brand's Share of Voice exceeds its market share, growth typically follows
• When its Share of Voice drops below market share, decline becomes almost inevitable

Research from the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, the world's largest center for marketing science research, reveals the full, sobering progression:

According to a study of 57 brands that stopped advertising for a year or more, what begins as a 16% sales drop after one year without advertising deepens to 25% after two years and 36% after three years.

Look beyond the topline numbers in this research, and you'll that the damage of going dark affects brands in predictable ways:

Smaller brands face steeper, faster declines

This is particularly concerning for early-stage disruptors. When these brands stop advertising, any momentum reverses fast, as their limited mental availability—how easily a brand comes to mind in purchasing situations—erodes much faster than for established brands.

The illusion of stability masks the damage being done

While large, established brands may weather a year without significant sales impact, the long-term damage to mental availability quietly grows. Emotional connections with consumers weaken during periods of silence, with the difficult-to-reverse sales declines appearing 18-24 months later.

Recovery requires more than resuming normal activities

Approximately 50% of brands in Ehrenberg-Bass's study that resumed advertising after a 12-month pause never regained their previous growth trajectory. Middle-market brands are especially vulnerable; the progress they've built through consistent visibility dissipates, putting them back at square one.

Making matters worse? Economic anxiety only deepens these risks. During downturns, consumer risk aversion grows, and people gravitate toward brands they see as stable and reliable—making any change a source of potential vulnerability.

This pattern has played out across economic cycles, costing those who cut while making enduring winners out of those who invested the same or more:

• GREAT DEPRESSION: Kellogg’s
  While Post Cereals slashed advertising, competitor Kellogg’s famously doubled their budget. The result? Kellogg’s profits grew by 30%, and the company became the category leader—a position it’s never relinquished.
• 2008-09 RECESSION: Frito-Lay
  Frito-Lay continued to launch new products, run major campaigns and invest in targeted marketing for its core snack brands. By 2009, revenue had grown 6%, profits had risen 10%, and the company accounted for 40% of all savory snacks sold in the U.S. They too emerged as the enduring leader in their competitive set.
• COVID-19 PANDEMIC: P&G
  Numerous household product manufacturers slashed marketing budgets as a defensive move only to watch P&G maintain advertising investment across their portfolio. P&G’s revenues surged, while peers who cut back struggled to regain market share even after the disruption.

The good news is this: as evidenced by these examples, brands that maintain (or increase) marketing investments during uncertain times outperform competitors in the recovery period–making any temporary financial pain worthwhile.

But are we even in a downturn? If you’re not certain, you’re not alone.

What makes today's situation unique is that while the historical data is clear, current economic conditions have marketers caught in a state of suspense.

The Surprising Reality of Current Marketing Spend

Economic concerns may be dominating the headlines, but a counterintuitive truth emerges when we look at the spend data. Most brands aren't cutting back significantly—at least not yet.

The evidence? Media prices remain remarkably stable.

After the most expensive political advertising season in history, we might have expected a significant drop in CPMs (cost per thousand impressions) across platforms. Instead, as shown in this recent data from Birch, Instagram CPMs have held steady since the beginning of 2025, with only minor fluctuations that fall well within normal political/seasonal patterns:

This stability tells us something crucial. While economists debate whether we're in a slowdown or just a collective financial mood swing, boardroom anxiety isn’t driving panic.

So if you're considering reducing your marketing spend while your competitors don’t, you're essentially volunteering to become less visible while they maintain presence–sacrificing consumer connection at an extremely risky time.

Of course, every day brings fresh economic news. We'll continue watching for clear indicators of brand belt-tightening, like:

• Sudden drops in category-specific CPMs across digital platforms
• Shifts in ad messaging toward promotional versus brand-focused content
• Significant reductions in competitor ad frequency

But for now, these indicators are holding steady. That means the current risk isn't spending too much money on marketing—it's being the first brand that stops.

Behavioral Science as Brand’s Source of Clarity

There is one economic force that can help marketers find their footing right now: their consumer.

Behavioral science, the study of why human beings do what they do, reveals the psychological triggers, mental shortcuts and emotions that drive the vast majority of all decisions–including purchase.

When marketers apply the right principles strategically, they make their brands easy to notice, trust and choose. Their brand becomes the intuitive choice. They become irresistible.

How do they know which behavioral principles to apply? They consider human–not market–context.

Consumers are looking at all the same conflicting indicators as marketers. And they have all the same anxious questions:

• Is a recession coming?
• Are we already in one?
• Will I be able to afford everything I need?
• If I make the wrong choices now, will I ever be able to recover?

The irony? While everyone searches for economic certainty, the most predictable thing is how humans respond to uncertainty itself. And these behavioral patterns create a roadmap for marketers when all other indicators fail.

Recent surveys reflect consumers’ suspended judgment. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index is up from its pandemic lows but remains volatile. Consumers haven't settled into confidence or concern—they're caught in the middle, just like the brands trying to reach them. And this state triggers proven psychological responses.

Economic anxiety activates decision-making patterns in consumers long before official downturns are declared. People start adjusting their spending habits based on their perception of economic health, not actual economic indicators.

As a result, marketers can apply behavioral science to craft campaigns that resonate with these psychological shifts—turning economic anxiety into a strategic advantage.

The question, for now, isn’t whether or not to spend. It’s how to maximize existing investments by meeting the moment.

Powerful Behavioral Principles for Uncertain Periods

During uncertainty, a variety of behavioral principles become more influential. Understanding them helps brands craft messaging that resonates precisely because times feel hard—creating connections that drive both immediate results and long-term loyalty.

The Affect Heuristic delivers emotional value in practical times.
This principle explains why people rely on emotions, not logic, when making most decisions. It’s why consumers don't stop spending during tough economic periods; they recalibrate their indulgences.

This drives the famous “Lipstick Effect"—the behavioral twist that leads to spikes in emotionally comforting purchases during tough economic periods. It was first spotted during the Great Depression, when cosmetics sales defied all gravity. But it has reappeared during every downturn since.

During the 2020 pandemic, Häagen-Dazs continued to invest in digital marketing, launching campaigns that emphasized deserved moments of joy rather than apologies for indulgence. Their sales rose while ad awareness and purchase intent more than doubling in the UK.

For marketers, the opportunity lies in framing your product as an emotional sanctuary rather than a practical necessity. Think:

• Limited-edition packaging that signals "special occasion"
• Social campaigns showcasing testimonials about emotional benefits
• Campaign creative that depicts the moment of emotional reward rather than anything about product features

Loss Aversion removes risk from consumer decisions.
Remember how we noted that Loss Aversion—that tendency to feel the pain of potential losses more deeply than possible wins—often drives marketing's budget cuts?

That same principle influences consumer behavior in tough economic times, making them more cautious about which premium products deserve their dollars.

Spirits brands that respected Loss Aversion during the 2008 recession pulled ahead. While competitors cut advertising, Maker's Mark maintained its marketing presence, debuting on television and reallocating spend to more effective channels. This helped return the brand to double-digit growth while others struggled to recover lost ground.

For marketers, the opportunity lies in explicitly removing risks from premium purchases. Think:

• "Worth it every time" messaging emphasized in campaign headlines
• Creative that acknowledges consumer hesitation and demonstrates consistent quality
• Loyalty programs that reduce the perception of waste by extending the brand relationship beyond the initial purchase

The Illusion of Control gives consumers the sense of agency they need.
Economic uncertainty makes people feel powerless, intensifying their desire for control over their circumstances.

During the 2008-2009 recession, Domino's reinvented their product while giving consumers unprecedented transparency into the ordering process. Their real-time "Pizza Tracker" transformed an ordinary delivery into what felt like a controlled experience.

The result? Domino's timely connection with consumer emotions sent shareholder returns soaring while competitors that cut marketing saw declines. For marketers, the opportunity lies in creating experiences that help consumers feel like they're in the driver's seat. Think:

• Interactive campaign elements that give consumers meaningful choices
• Digital tools that let consumers personalize, track or otherwise control their experience
• Campaign messaging that emphasizes transparency into your process or sourcing

Uncertain? Adapt Your Approach, Not Your Presence

The headlines may paint a picture of economic ambiguity at best, dread at worst. But for indulgence marketers who understand the behavioral science at work within their consumers, this uncertainty creates real opportunities.

While competitors hesitate or miss the moment, you can seize this chance to deepen consumer connections. You position your brand for both immediate resilience and lasting advantage by maintaining strategic visibility now.

Remember these key insights:

• Economic indicators remain unclear, though most marketing budgets remain stable
• Consumer psychology shifts before economic conditions are officially declared
• Your decisions now shape your brand's trajectory long after current conditions stabilize

Act on these three clear imperatives:

1. Stay visible while adapting your message to meet heightened emotional needs
   Position your brand as the emotional sanctuary consumers actively seek during uncertain times, not the expense they're looking to cut.
2. Apply behavioral science principles strategically when they'll have maximum impact
   The Affect Heuristic, Loss Aversion and Illusion of Control are just a few examples of principles that become particularly powerful during uncertain times. Apply them across your consumer’s journey to purchase to make your brand their intuitive choice.
3. Test and refine approaches based on actual behavior, not economic forecasts
   Watch what your consumers do, not just what economists say. Monitor engagement metrics, conversion patterns and content performance to identify which emotional triggers resonate most strongly.

Don't go dark. Instead, make the confident case for giving consumers the comfort of consistent, emotionally-resonant visibility.

If you do, your brand can do more than survive the current uncertainty; it can become irresistible because of it. Converting more easily. Maintaining its premium position in consumers’ hearts and budgets—no matter what the headlines say.

To see behavioral science principles in action building irresistible brands, explore Method1’s work.

About the Author

Ian Orekondy, Director of Media, Analytics and Innovation at Method1, is a data-driven strategist who specializes in connecting behavioral science principles to media planning–helping brands maximize the impact of every investment. Throughout his career, Ian has developed innovative strategies for clients including PepsiCo, Gap and Merck. His work combines analytical precision with creative solutions, driving both performance metrics and long-term brand value.